Recent reports around Syria have focused on all the international groups now entering the fight and who they are siding with. Most reports are dividing the factions along simplistic lines of Sunni and Shi’ite. My understanding of Islam is limited so I don’t properly understand this divide and would appreciate any knowledgeable readers who would be happy to take the time to leave a comment and explain the difference. My gaps in knowledge aside, I’m well aware that any religious factions are going to be a lot more complex than these two divisions, yet they seem to form a good framework for defining the ‘sides’ in the conflict. With this framework in mind, the big questions is ‘where is it heading?’
The ravages of war
Reports are showing Shi’ite militias aligning with Bashar Al-Assad though whether Assad is fully in control now is questionable with Hezbollah and Iran being said to have taken more of a lead in the frontline battles, tipping the conflict in Assad’s favour. Iraqi Shi’ites have also joined the fight on this side. The Alawite group that Assad is from is understood to be a mystical group within Shia Islam and largely more secular, whereas the Shi’ite groups joining them are much more conservatively religious. The growing dominance of Hezbollah and Iran could render Assad irrelevant and therefore could entrench the conflict for a lot longer as, should he fall, Hezbollah and Iran will still have an interest in making sure the opposition groups do not gain full control.
On the Sunni side is the Western backed opposition, which is made up of secular leaning groups but Al-Qaeda (Sunni) is also in the mix and more conservative Sunni factions are also joining the fight. Pakistan’s Taliban has been reported as entering the fight alongside Al-Qaeda, and Saudi Arabia, which is a Sunni nation, is the biggest support nation for these forces.
None of this mentions the Kurds who have managed to take control of a portion of Syria that borders Turkey and Iraq. They have a vested interest in part of each of the three countries that could be used to form their own independent state in the future.
It would be easy to look upon this with a holier than thou approach by Christians, but it isn’t much different from the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox divide or the Roman Catholic and Protestant divide that is littered with a violent history – Ireland being a perfect example. Christian history should also remind us that while religion is the tool and the justification in these conflicts, at their heart is a struggle for power and resources. There is a power struggle going on in the Middle East. It involves the nations in the Middle East and also those who have desired and gained access to its resources over the last century.
There is no ideal outcome to this conflict anymore and it’s set to go on for a long time. Even if the opposition topples Assad and manages to gain control, there are different factions within that opposition who are also now at war with each other with more moderate groups fighting conservative groups. If Assad remains or he falls but Hezbollah and Iran maintain a presence then they’ll have Al-Qaeda and its allies to contend with for a long time to come and the Kurds aren’t going to give their territory up easily for anybody now. Syria has become a deeply divided country with the violence set to continue for a long time yet.
Caught in the middle of this proxy war are millions of civilians who are having their lives torn apart. People are fleeing the country in droves and the death toll continues to climb. The fallout of this conflict will be felt for decades but right now there are people in need. The international community needs to respond and respond quickly. The death toll is now over 100,000 and with 1.7 million refugees now residing in places like Lebanon, Jordan and other surrounding nations and that figure set to climb drastically as this conflict continues. Millions more are internally displaced and at risk of being attacked by either side. There are men, women and children who need very real help. I’d like to encourage you to do what you can to make a difference in the life of these refugees. You can do so by supporting TEAR Fund’s Syria Appeal. Our partners are doing everything they can to meet the desperate needs of those whose lives have been torn apart by the violence of others. Let’s do what we can to assist that work.